ACT Research has released its newest decarbonization forecast, North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK Plus, which incorporates expected advancements in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) technologies of battery-electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEV), and natural gas (NG) as an alternative decarbonization technology.
“Regulations have typically been a driving force for the adoption of decarbonization solutions; upcoming reductions in regulatory stringency will significantly impact deployment of decarbonization solutions, particularly in the earlier years of our forecast,” says Lydia Vieth, ACT’s Research analyst, electrification and autonomy. “Whether the administration fully repeals, modifies or delays key regulations, the impact on equipment decisions, fleet planning and operational costs will be significant.”
ACT Research says regulations that require lower emissions have been the greatest influence on decarbonization, and as those regulations change, or are revoked, ACT Research expects to see corresponding changes in adoption of zero-emission CVs.
“Our forecast assumes the two key regulations that have been in place for some years: CARB’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) went live in California at the start of 2024 and beginning in 2027 the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) low-NOx regulations go into effect, will continue to prevail for now in some measure,” says Ann Rundle, ACT vice president of electrification and Autonomy. “ACT Research continues to develop and refine decarbonization forecasting models that detail specific vehicle applications for medium-duty (MD), heavy-duty (HD) and bus market segments.
“Our forecasting methodology incorporates a bottom-up, apples-to-apples cost-modeling approach, considering all costs, including infrastructure. This TCO-based approach allows us to compare the full impact of life-cycle costs between competing powertrain technologies across the commercial vehicle population.”
